Effect of Production Costs on the Price per Ton of Sugarcane: The Case of Brazil

The costs of agricultural inputs added to those labor represent almost a third the total cost Brazilian sugarcane production. This study analyzes behavior price per ton in Brazil, relating it main production this cultivation. Twelve indicators from January 2015 December 2020 were evaluated. First, data adjusted multiple linear regression model identify significant variables on variation sugarcane. Then, Monte Carlo simulation was used measure level certainty occurrence these variables, and forecasts obtained adjustment ARIMA models. results showed influence diesel oil, two pesticides, daily laborers sugarcane, besides an increasing trend its, providing relevant short-term projections for decision-making about investments agribusiness sector.